A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
